Chicago Winter Transit and Gas Index: What Cold Days Cost

Key takeaway: On the three non-holiday weekdays of the last three winters when Chicago’s high stayed at 5°F or below, CTA rides fell 44% to 62% from a typical winter weekday. On the one such day we could measure for rideshare, trips fell only about 14%, and the average trip still cost $20.54 with tip and fees, against $2.50 for a CTA ride (our calculations from City of Chicago and NOAA data).

Chicago winter transit and gas index: 44% to 62% fewer CTA rides on weekdays with a high of 5°F or below; $20.54 average rideshare trip, January 21, 2025; $2.50 a CTA ride — Key numbers from this guide, fall 2026. Each figure is sourced in the text below.

This index is for anyone budgeting a Chicago winter: what the coldest days do to how people get around, what that costs, and what heat and parking cost this season. The transit and rideshare numbers are our own analysis of public City of Chicago trip records matched to official weather records, so you will not find them elsewhere. Every figure has its source and date.

How much does CTA ridership drop on Chicago’s coldest days?

In short: on non-holiday winter weekdays when the high at O’Hare stayed at 5°F or below (January 16, 2024; January 21, 2025; January 23, 2026), CTA bus and rail rides fell 47%, 44% and 62% from a typical winter weekday that season. Days with highs from 10°F to 15°F fell only 2% to 20%.

Weekday	High and low at O’Hare	CTA rides that day	Typical winter weekday that season	Change
Tuesday, January 16, 2024	3°F, minus 7°F	466,417	882,341	Down 47%
Friday, January 19, 2024	14°F, 5°F	756,636	882,341	Down 14%
Thursday, December 12, 2024	15°F, 4°F	832,311	952,713	Down 13%
Tuesday, January 21, 2025	2°F, minus 8°F	530,886	952,713	Down 44%
Tuesday, February 18, 2025	14°F, minus 5°F	865,606	952,713	Down 9%
Friday, January 23, 2026	5°F, minus 11°F	387,388	1,011,123	Down 62%
Monday, January 26, 2026	10°F, 0°F	808,114	1,011,123	Down 20%
Tuesday, January 27, 2026	14°F, 5°F	986,884	1,011,123	Down 2%

CTA bus and rail rides, City of Chicago, on every non-holiday winter weekday from December 2023 to February 2026 when the high at O’Hare was 15°F or colder.

Source: our calculation from the City of Chicago’s CTA daily boarding totals (bus plus rail, data through August 31, 2026) and NOAA daily weather records for O’Hare (station USW00094846). “Typical winter weekday” is the average of that season’s December to February weekdays with a high above 32°F: 56 days in 2023 to 2024, 27 in 2024 to 2025 and 30 in 2025 to 2026. We left out Christmas Eve through December 26, New Year’s Eve and Day, Martin Luther King Jr. Day, Presidents Day and the January 9, 2025 federal day of mourning, because ridership is lower on those days anyway.

The pattern is a threshold, not a slope. In the low teens, most people still ride. Once the high drops to single digits, close to half of the usual riders stay off the system. The data shows how many rides happened, not why; school closings, remote work and trips moved to cars all play a part.

Do Chicagoans switch to rideshare when it’s bitterly cold?

In short: partly. On Tuesday, January 21, 2025 (high 2°F, low minus 8°F), rideshare trips reported to the City fell about 14% from the average of the Thursday and Friday before, when highs were 38°F and 47°F. CTA rides fell 44% that day, so the share of trips made by car went up. The average fare did not jump.

Day	High and low at O’Hare	Rideshare trips	Average fare	Average trip total with tip and fees	Average trip length
Thursday, January 16, 2025	38°F, 18°F	253,249	$15.87	$21.62	7.1 miles
Friday, January 17, 2025	47°F, 26°F	289,829	$15.60	$21.28	6.8 miles
Tuesday, January 21, 2025	2°F, minus 8°F	232,626	$15.08	$20.54	6.9 miles

Rideshare trips reported to the City of Chicago, by day.

Source: our calculation from the City of Chicago’s rideshare trip records (trips reported by rideshare companies under city ordinance; the City rounds fares to the nearest $2.50 and tips to the nearest $1.00, so we report averages over each full day). The change is our calculation: 232,626 compared with 271,539, the average of 253,249 and 289,829. One cold day is a small sample, so read it as a snapshot. For comparison, on Friday, January 23, 2026 (high 5°F, low minus 11°F), riders took 271,159 trips with an average fare of $13.95 and an average total of $21.36 (City of Chicago, 2026 trip records).

What does a cold-day commute cost: CTA or rideshare?

Way to get there and back	Cost for one round trip	Based on
CTA bus or train	$5.00	Two full-fare rides at $2.50 (CTA)
CTA with a 30-day pass	$0 extra	$75 pass covers unlimited rides (CTA)
Rideshare	About $41	Two trips at the January 21, 2025 average total of $20.54 (our calculation)

Source: CTA fares; rideshare from the City of Chicago trip records above. Fares for the CTA, Metra and Pace are frozen until at least July 1, 2027 under the state law that created the Northern Illinois Transit Authority (Mass Transit), so the $2.50 and $75 hold all winter. A rideshare round trip on a bitterly cold day costs about eight times a pair of CTA rides (our calculation: $41.08 divided by $5.00). Our CTA fares guide covers reduced fares and passes.

What will heating a Chicago home cost this winter?

Item	Figure	Source and date
Peoples Gas supply price	32.83 cents per therm	Peoples Gas, October 2026
Average Midwest natural gas heating bill this winter	$613, down 10% from last winter	EIA Winter Fuels Outlook, October 2026
Peoples Gas delivery rate request	$144 million (proposed order: $66.2 million)	CUB, October 2026; ICC final order expected in November
ComEd price to compare	10.103 cents per kWh, October 1, 2026 to May 31, 2027	Plug In Illinois

Source: Peoples Gas rates; EIA Winter Fuels Outlook; Citizens Utility Board; NPR Illinois, October 29, 2026; Plug In Illinois. The Illinois Commerce Commission has not ruled on the Peoples Gas request yet; we will update this table when it does. Our Chicago winter costs guide lists bill help, LIHEAP income limits and weatherization rebates.

What does winter parking cost if you get caught?

The overnight parking ban runs December 1 to April 1, from 3 a.m. to 7 a.m., on 107 miles of main streets, snow or not. A towed car costs at least a $150 tow, a $60 ticket and $25 a day in storage (City of Chicago). Picking the car up the next day comes to at least $235 (our calculation: $150 plus $60 plus $25). A monthly garage spot averages about $190 in Chicago (SpotHero). Our parking costs guide has permits, meters and the 2-inch snow ban.

How we built this index

We matched each day in the City of Chicago’s CTA ridership records (December 2023 to February 2026) and rideshare trip records (January 2025, plus January 23, 2026) with the high and low temperature NOAA recorded at O’Hare that day. We compared weekdays only, because weekend ridership is much lower, and left out holidays. Our numbers are rounded to the nearest whole percent or cent. The ridership and trip data are public, so anyone can repeat the calculation; see our methodology for how we handle sources and our own calculations.